The government's proposals to eliminate excessive waiting from the NHS stand no realistic chance of succeeding, a report from think tank Civitas has stated.
The government has set a target of reducing every patient's pathway of referral to treatment - the time between seeing the GP and going into hospital - to 18 weeks by the end of 2008.
But the Why are we waiting? report said that improvements in waiting times have been linear and that if the trend is to continue around 77% of patients will be turned around in 18 weeks by December 2008.
"Clearly this also puts paid to the interim benchmark that 85% of admitted patients be treated within 18 weeks by March," said report author James Gubb. "Given current rates of improvement, this figure will stand around 65% - still a real achievement, but quite significantly off what is a very optimistic target."
The report said that for some primary care trusts (PCTs) getting 100% of patients treated within 18 weeks of referral looks "nigh on impossible". For example, just 32% of elective referrals are treated within 18 weeks in Brent Teaching PCT compared with 83% in Heart of Birmingham PCT.
Although patients will be able to choose between all providers from April 2008, the report said many GPs were not providing information about choice.
"It must now be down to PCTs and GPs to encourage choice and competition to ensure the window of opportunity that has been provided isn't missed," said Gubb. "For the benefits of competition to be realised, and for waiting times to really accelerate downwards, the reluctance of commissioners to use independent providers at the expense of established NHS providers has to change - and fast."
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